haven’t been writing much lately. We’ve been on lockdown most of the week, with an occasional trip into town to get food and other necessities.

Here are the states for COVID 19 and the coronoavirus…

Worldwide
Total Confirmed 722,289
Total Deaths 33,984

USA
Total Confirmed 142,356
Total Deaths 2,493

I expect that number to rise.

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It’s been pretty steady after the numbers started to get counted that the death toll numbers would double every Monday. That will hold true going through tomorrow. That means we could be looking at close to 68,000 deaths worldwide by next Monday. The US totals will get much worse.

Stay home people

Be safe.

Peace y’all.

Good evening everyone. It’s old fat Grampa Bob, back once again after a bit of a writing hiatus to deal with the reality of our world today.

So, I’ve mentioned it a few times, and I want to bring it up again. We are in a state of isolation as we address the issue of this virus that has pretty much put the world on hold while we deal with it. The coronavirus causes a sickness called COVID 19, and this thing is a killer. In the United State right now, we have the third most cases in the world, and our numbers of sick and dying are going up every day, and just about doubling every week.

We’re all safe here in our household, but extreme measures have been taken to protect human life. We are engaged in social distancing, where we stay 6 feet away from people in public settings.

My work is all remote, and they’ve closed every school in the state. All unnecessary travel is prohibited. Lives will be saved through this process… we are being tasked to stay home and avoid people.

I can handle this… but sometimes you just have to laugh to keep from crying. This is so crazy right now, more than a little bit absurd, but at least we haven’t had any reports of zombies yet.

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Yet.

I’ll get back to writing more regularly, but we live in some pretty crazy times right now.

I hope the world is treating you better than you deserve.

Peace y’all.

Let’s have a little chat today about sources and fact checking. I’ll be the first to admit that there have been times that I have posted inaccurate information on the internet. Example – I posted a statement about the NSA deleting their group/team/task force that had the purpose of preparing the US for a pandemic. I stated it was eliminated by Trump, when in fact, it was eliminated by Trump’s National Security Advisor, John Bolton. I should’ve used the term “Trump Administration”, which would’ve been more accurate.

I then cited an article with a fact-checking service, Snopes.com. The response I received from a Facebook connection is that Snopes is a known left-wing source. Basically, he didn’t address the individual points made in the article, he simply attacked the site and its credibility.

You know what, I’ve done the same thing. I’ve come across posts from certain right-wing internet sites, and blown them off because they peddle in fiction.

Snopes, however, is a fact checking service.

Let’s say I do a quick search on “reliable fact-checking web site”. The first article that popped in my search engine is this link right here. It’s an opinion piece about the best fact-checking sites, and Snopes is at the top of the list, followed by FactCheck.org, Hoax-Slayer.net, Politifact.com, and Truthorfiction.com.

Interesting group of fact-checking sites. But it’s an opinion piece, right?

How about we simply take a look at the four fact-checking services and what they have to say about Snopes?

Factcheck.org – I checked this link here. Factcheck wrote this:

“In 2009, we addressed Snopes.com’s alleged political bias and wrote that we found the website’s work to be “solid and well-documented,” and that its articles appeared “utterly poker-faced” when tackling rumors about Democratic and Republican politicians.

We also noted at the time: “We even link to Snopes.com when it’s appropriate rather than reinvent the wheel ourselves, which we consider high praise.”

At no point did we ever “expose” the myth-busting website as “an extremely liberal propaganda site with an agenda to discredit anything that appears to be conservative.”

That false claim was made in a meme that began circulating on Facebook and other platforms in February. Several of our readers have asked us about it.”

I guess it’s safe to say that Factcheck thinks Snopes is legit. That’s one…

The next one on the list is Hoax-slayer.net. I tried searching on “snopes” and “snopes.com”, and did not find any relevant articles, so if you do find an article on that site that refers to the validity of snopes, ping me in the comments. I’d like to know what you found there.

Following that unsatisfying foray, I checked Politifact. When I searched Politifact for information on Snopes, there was not an article about Snopes, but I did connect to 19 stories on Politifact’s site that used Snopes as a reference. After that little revelation, I went back and took a look at Hoax-slayer.net, and, wouldn’t you know it, Hoax-slayer.net cited Snopes in multiple stories as well.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that if you’re using Snopes as a source, and you are trying to run a site with some credibility as a fact-checking service, you must hold Snopes in high regard… or else you wouldn’t use Snopes as your source, right?

Lastly, there is Truthorfiction.com. I remember this well, as years ago I had a coworker tell me that Snopes was a lefty site financed by George Soros and the DNC to support Barack Obama… and that I should use a more reliable fact-checking service like Truthorfiction.com.

I then went to that site and looked up their stories on Snopes… and they had this to say:

Re: “Snopes Exposed as CIA Operation Designed to Spread Disinformation-Fiction!” – There’s no evidence to support claims that the CIA created Snopes to spread disinformation and to counter independent websites that are critical of the agency.
The rumor first surfaced in October 2016 on the conspiracy-minded website The Wayne Madsen Report. The Snopes CIA report, which is hidden behind a paywall, takes issue with Snopes’ referral to the website a “disreputable web site.” The only “proof” provided in the report is the statement that “Nothing says ‘CIA’ more than Snopes.com’s description of legitimate news reports of CIA director John Brennan being a Wahhabist and Saudi sympathizer as ‘bogus.’

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Re: “Snopes CEO Arrested on Fraud, Corruption Charges-Fiction!” –

Summary of eRumor:

A report that Barbara and David Mikkelson, the founders of Snopes, were arrested on fraud and corruption charges has gone viral.
The Truth:
Barbara and David Mikkelson have not been arrested on fraud and corruption charges.
A fake news website called The People’s Cube started that rumor with a story that appeared under the headline, “Snopes.com CEO arrested on charges of fraud and corruption.” According to the report:

LOS ANGELES, CA – Snopes.com owners Barbara and David Mikkelson were detained by police today after an unrelated investigation of a Snopes.com editor lead police onto a paper trail of corruption, bribery, and fraud at the very heart of the fact-checking organization.

Evidence obtained by police has revealed that Snopes.com, which markets itself as “the definitive Internet reference source for urban legends, folklore, myths, rumors, and misinformation,” has a history of accepting money and favors from left-leaning and pro-Islamic political groups and individuals for helping them to advance their cause by rigging public discourse with selective fact-finding and deliberate manipulation of public opinion.

The story goes that police followed a paper trail to Barbara and David Mikkelson after a Snopes editor lashed out a flea market vendor in Los Angeles for playing the song “Dixie’s Land” because of its ties to the Confederacy and Old South.
The story was shared thousands of times, but it’s a work of fiction.

Re: “Snopes.com is a secret tool of the Democratic party to promote Barack Obama-Fiction!” –

Summary of eRumor:
An eRumor about
Snopes.com accusing them being owned by a flaming liberal and this man is in the tank for Obama.

The Truth:
In October, 2008, stories began circulating via forwarded emails that the popular urban legends site Snopes.com was owned by liberals and was “in the tank” for presidential candidate Barack Obama.
As with many forwarded emails, the criticism did not include any example of what the writer of the email claimed was the difference between what Snopes.com reported and what Barack Obama had actually said.
Snopes.com is an excellent site that has become an authoritative source for information about urban legends and forwarded emails. We regard David and Barbara Mikkelson, the founders and operators of Snopes.com, as colleagues and professional researchers who have earned a good reputation for what they do.
We can give a unique perspective on this story because we do the same kind of work as Snopes.com and have sometimes been the target of similar criticism.
We’ve got a collection of emails that have come to TruthOrFiction.com accusing us of being “right wing whackos” as well as “liberals” and “communists.” We’ve been suspected of being owned and operated by both Republicans and Democrats. We’ve been called “Christian propagandists” as well as “atheists pretending to be neutral.” We occasionally receive emails that have elaborate theories about who “really” owns us and what our “real” motives are.

The bottom line is that if you try to report the truth, there will be those who don’t like the truth you’ve reported and who will develop suspicions about why you did.

That, in our view, is what is happening with Snopes.

The 2008 presidential campaign has been one of the most intense and unique in our nation’s history and has prompted more political eRumors than any presidential campaign in our experience, especially about Barack Obama.

These anti-Snopes emails have probably been prompted by someone who does not like Barack Obama and does not like the fact that Snopes (or TruthOrFiction.com for that matter) has debunked some of the emails that are not true about him.
One of the versions of the eRumor mentions TruthOrFiction.com and recommends our site. We appreciate that, but we want to say for the record that we’ve had nothing to do with this eRumor about Snopes.com and we condemn it.

Snopes Exposed?

In August 2010 this rumor morphed when President Obama appointed Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court. An August 4, 2010 World Net Daily article alleged that this was a political payback for several cases questioning the President’s citizenship that were denied by Kagan.  Snopes reported that these allegations were false.  Shortly after that inboxes were flooded with emails with the subject header “Snopes Exposed!” alleging that they lied about their findings to protect Obama.  TruthOrFiction.com also investigated this rumor and found that World Net Daily released the story but the filed court cases did not question the President’s birth records.
World Net Daily corrected the story and posted a comment that said, “An earlier version of this story incorrectly described a series of cases for which Elena Kagan represented the government as eligibility cases. Those cases, in fact, were a series of unrelated disputes pending before the Supreme Court and the references have been removed from this report.”

I’m going to stick with Snopes.com as a fact-checking service for now. No one has provided a convincing argument as to why Snopes should be avoided. Even when there is a point to be made, it’s usually about interpretation, and considering the volume of articles they have to go through, I think their mistakes are well within the margin of error.

Wow… that was a long one.

Enough for now. I hope the world treats you better than you deserve.

Peace y’all.

Hi everybody. It’s been five days since my last post. It’s been a rough few days. The coronavirus has led to an outbreak of COVID 19 around the world, and although it hasn’t affected anybody in my family, I have coworkers that have been tested positive, and at least one person n Kansas has died. I’m reposting a message from another internet contributor as to why this is so dangerous, and why the NBA, NHL, and the NCAA have all suspended or cancelled their seasons/tournaments.

Here it is…

Jason Warner

March 12 at 9:42 PM · 

This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.

For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.

WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:

For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world’s fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one for hyperbole or histrionics. My bullshit factor is close to zero.

I share all this personal information only to help solidify that this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion. Many people do not understand what is happening with the pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to write this and share this on Facebook.

Now that I’ve gotten the introduction out of the way, here are two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.

ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC:

One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It’s awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.

To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also.”

SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE – THIS IS WHAT I’VE DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:

I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get togethers. Normal routine meetings. Everything has been canceled. It’s difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell my kids they can’t attend youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.

We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private school. We have eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.

THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI FACETED:

1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s.

2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today. As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European countries who have been slow to respond.). Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.

If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government, because they are required to stop the spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.

3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.

4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.

5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”. But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already “everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math. It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases).

6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.

The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.

The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks… the shortage of ventilators.

ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:

Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1-2%). All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on…

The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won’t really go off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals.

You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.

YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):

To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).

This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.

2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it’s the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.

Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.

Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people. This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will require acute medical care, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the “number of beds” and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators.

These numbers you just calculated are the problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem) if we don’t immediately begint social distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.

COUNTRIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY CARE FOR THE SICK.

And by sick I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage handbooks filled with success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn’t receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start today.

The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20), ( see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and it doesn’t seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an “order of magnitude” means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it’s an order of magnitude greater.

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Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here: https://externalmediasite.partners.org/…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5…) that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.

But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:

If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).

The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).

This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.

15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections = 1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).

1.5 million hospitalizations is about 50% more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.

Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like France or the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.

But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 (admittedly dated) and https://theweek.com/…/doesnt-have-enough-icu-beds-ventilato…

The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require acute care (15% of the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today).

BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days from this writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:

If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require critical care. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.

THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is “two squared”.

2 x 2 = 4

Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.

This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It’s why they say a “post goes viral”.

SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY:

Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.

Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.

This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.

The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.

START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.

Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas Pueyo has been read 7M times in the last 24 hours and has been updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.

Here’s that link.

https://medium.com/…/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-d…

Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the pandemic is here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of how I should respond.

There is more information in the comments below.

MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your friends share this post and so on, we use the power of exponential math to work in our favor, which seems appropriate given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.

For people not on Facebook you can email or text the link. If you know people in government this fact-based post may help inform them to make the best decisions.

It’s time for us humans to go on the offensive against the virus. We must fight back.

There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing.

Do it today.

/End

And that’s where we are today, practicing a little bit of safe isolation.

I hope the world is treating you better than you deserve.

Peace y’all.

It’s been a few days since my last post, and I’m fighting the end of winter, just before spring blues. A combination of road weariness and cabin fever. I’m just in a weird place right now. I know I made a pledge to write, but for one reason or another, the words just aren’t coming.

I have a lot on my mind, between work and family. So much is happening, and I sometimes have a hard time keeping up with it all. I should try to stay focused on the best part of it, but I get down over this or that from time to time, and sometimes I suffer from some oddball variation of attitude drift, and the things I feel most positive about get overwhelmed by the things that cause me anxiety.

I’ll get it worked out, I always do. In the meantime, I’ll stay focused on family first, then the career, then the other things.

Oh, the stock market dropped two thousand points today, so that’s something. More people are catching and dying from the coronavirus today than yesterday.

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Yeah, I need to focus on the positive stuff. Bonnie and Dane are home for spring break! So I got that!

I hope the word is treating you better than you deserve.

Peace y’all.

OK, there’s a lot of stuff going around about COVID 19. This is (allegedly) from the WHO. I’m reposting this for the value of the info, the timeliness, and, selfishly, to pad my word count for the month of March.

The WHO sent 25 international experts to China and here are their main findings after 9 days

WHO

The WHO has sent a team of international experts to China to investigate the situation, including Clifford Lane, Clinical Director at the US National Institutes of Health. Here is the press conference on Youtube and the final report of the commission as PDF after they visited Beijing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Chengdu. Here are some interesting facts about Covid that I have not yet read in the media:

• When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet.
• 5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen – and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). The mass and duration of the treatments overburdened the existing health care system in Wuhan many times over. The province of Hubei, whose capital is Wuhan, had 65,596 infected persons so far. A total of 40,000 employees were sent to Hubei from other provinces to help fight the epidemic. 45 hospitals in Wuhan are caring for Covid patients, 6 of which are for patients in critical condition and 39 are caring for seriously ill patients and for infected people over the age of 65. Two makeshift hospitals with 2,600 beds were built within a short time. 80% of the infected have mild disease, ten temporary hospitals were set up in gymnasiums and exhibition halls for those.
• China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week. The test delivers a result on the same day. Across the country, anyone who goes to the doctor with a fever is screened for the virus: In Guangdong province, far from Wuhan, 320,000 people have been tested, and 0.14% of those were positive for the virus.
• The vast majority of those infected sooner or later develop symptoms. Cases of people in whom the virus has been detected and who do not have symptoms at that time are rare – and most of them fall ill in the next few days.
• The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.
• An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system. All fatality figures reflect the state of affairs in China up to 17 February, and everything could be quite different in the future elsewhere.
• Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time – other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases. The fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan but 0.7% in other areas of China, which China explained with the lack of critical care beds in Wuhan. In order to keep the fatality rate low like outside of Wuhan, other countries have to aggressively contain the spread of the virus in order to keep the number of seriously ill Covid patients low and secondly increase the number of critical care beds until there is enough for the seriously ill. China also tested various treatment methods for the unknown disease and the most successful ones were implemented nationwide. Thanks to this response, the fatality rate in China is now lower than a month ago.
• Pre-existing conditions: The fatality rate for those infected with pre-existing cardiovascular disease in China was 13.2%. It was 9.2% for those infected with high blood sugar levels (uncontrolled diabetes), 8.4% for high blood pressure, 8% for chronic respiratory diseases and 7.6% for cancer. Infected persons without a relevant previous illness died in 1.4% of cases.
• Gender: Women catch the disease just as often as men. But only 2.8% of Chinese women who were infected died from the disease, while 4.7% of the infected men died. The disease appears to be not more severe in pregnant women than in others. In 9 examined births of infected women, the children were born by caesarean section and healthy without being infected themselves. The women were infected in the last trimester of pregnancy. What effect an infection in the first or second trimester has on embryos is currently unclear as these children are still unborn.
• Age: The younger you are, the less likely you are to be infected and the less likely you are to fall seriously ill if you do get infected:

Age	% of population	% of infected	Fatality
0-9	12.0%	0,9%	0 as of now
10-19	11.6%	1.2%	0.1%
20-29	13.5%	8.1%	0.2%
30-39	15.6%	17.0%	0.2%
40-49	15.6%	19.2%	0.4%
50-59	15.0%	22.4%	1.3%
60-69	10.4%	19.2%	3.6%
70-79	4.7%	8.8%	8.0%
80+	1.8%	3.2%	14.8%

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Read: Out of all people who live in China, 13.5% are between 20 and 29 years old. Out of those who were infected in China, 8.1% were in this age group (this does not mean that 8.1% of people between 20 and 29 become infected). This means that the likelihood of someone at this age to catch the infection is somewhat lower compared to the average. And of those who caught the infection in this age group, 0.2% died.

• Your likelihood to die: Some people who are in an age group read the fatality rate and think this is their personal likelihood that they will if they get infected. No, because all the other risk factors also apply. Men in this that age group will more likely die than women, people with preexisting conditions more than healthy people, and people in overcrowded hospitals more than those in hospitals where they get the care they need.
• The new virus is genetically 96% identical to a known coronavirus in bats and 86-92% identical to a coronavirus in pangolin. Therefore, the transmission of a mutated virus from animals to humans is the most likely cause of the appearance of the new virus.
• Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day – one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. “This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real,” the report says. The authors conclude this from their own experience on site, declining hospital visits in the affected regions, the increasing number of unoccupied hospital beds, and the problems of Chinese scientists to recruit enough newly infected for the clinical studies of the numerous drug trials. Here is the relevant part of the press conference about the decline assessment.
• One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then tests those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.

Finally, a few direct quotes from the report:

“China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak.”

“Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures.”

“COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission. Concerningly, global and national preparedness planning is often ambivalent about such interventions. However, to reduce COVID-19 illness and death, near-term readiness planning must embrace the large-scale implementation of high-quality, non-pharmaceutical public health measures. These measures must fully incorporate immediate case detection and isolation, rigorous close contact tracing and monitoring/quarantine, and direct population/community engagement.”

So, that’s my post for this day, the fifth day of March, 2020. I hope the world is treating you better than you deserve.

Peace y’all.

It’s been a real struggle this past week trying to write regularly. The motivation just hasn’t been there. I had a week off the road, and I just focused on the other work stuff that I needed to attend to, and I also focused on some family stuff, too.

My head is in kind of a weird place. I need to lubricate the gears a little bit, just feels like stuff is grinding. Not much really to say about that. March is here, and this is one of the times of year that I find a little bit more to get excited about as the bet part of the college basketball season is about to get underway.

Not going to worry too much about that now. I just need to get back into it, that’s all. Maybe I’ll find a little inspiration in the days ahead.

Other than that, I do have quite a bit to be thankful for. Work travel is backing off a bit. The COVID 19 viral outbreak has now killed 6 people in the US, and lots of action is being taken to prevent it from getting too far out of hand. We’re backing off travel at work, doing more virtual deliveries, and trying to cut back on the volume of travel, especially in the China, India, and South Korea.

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I’ve got plenty to keep me busy. Lots of virtual classes on my schedule now, and more local classes that don’t require me to be confined in an airplane with every body else’s breath contents circulating and recirculating.

I just need to focus on staying positive.

I hope the world is treating you better than you deserve.

Peace y’all.

You would think that I would do a better job keeping track of the days I’ve lived on this mortal plane, especially thinking about my anxiety and fears about turning 57.

I’m not going there tonight.

On that note, I am quite impressed with the feel of this keyboard, the Logitech MX Keys. I’ve been around a few keyboards in my day, and this one has to be i nmy top three. Granted, the old IBM click-tactile keyboards of the late 80’s/early 90’s would just about ruin a guy’s perspective – seriously, those were some of the finest keyboards ever created, and in a pinch, could be used as a personal protective instrument.

I didn’t watch the debates tonight. I’m not a member of the Democratic Party, so whoever they choose will be that party’s candidate. If I think that candidate has any chance in hell of winning the electoral college in Kansas, I’ll give them all due consideration. I’ll most likely vote my conscience, and that means I’ll keep my conscience clear and vote for anybody on the face of this planet that I think could do a better job than the people in the White House these days.

But, as I’ve stated before, I think a lobotomized kumquat could do a better job than Trump. Mainly because a lobotomized kumquat has more objectivity, care of the general public, and a more natural skin tone.

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OK, enough for now.

I hope the world is treating you better than you deserve.

Peace y’all.

OK, part of my motivation for writing tonight has to do with getting a new keyboard for home and on the road. I just picked up the Logitech MX Keys, a nice bluetooth keyboard, full-size yet still with a compactness to it. It will connect to three different devices, and it is currently charging off of my laptop. It also comes with a Logitech wireless adapter – so, technically, the thing could be connected to up to four different devices, I guess.

Had a few other thoughts today while I was out and about. Part of the thing that I have to remain constantly mindful of is gratitude. I have so much to be thankful for, from my parents doing what they could to get me off to the right start, as well as the little assists and nudges they offered along the way. I am thankful for my wife, who has been my rock for 24 years of marriage, and a year of courtship prior to that – so, yeah, a quarter of a century. I am thankful for my siblings, who have helped me to become wise, and my kids, who have reminded me that I’m not as smart or wise as I sometimes think I am.

Kansas plays Oklahoma State at Allen Fieldhouse here shortly, so we’ll see how that goes. I expect a favorable outcome. OSU has had some struggles this year, and Kansas doesn’t lose too many at home.

Ordered a dinner tonight, a platter called “The Meat Daddy”. Gees… I think I have lunch covered for tomorrow. Might have dinner covered, too. That’s a lot of food!

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That’s about it for me tonight. And yes, I do like this keyboard.

I hope the world is treating you better than you deserve – Heaven knows the world is certainly treating me pretty well.

Peace y’all.

Still trying to map my current reality to my numbering mistake on my blog post. Oh, well.

I’m pondering some political crap again, and I’m thinking about an analogy. I’m looking at our country like a ship at sea, with a large number of people on it. If most people are in the middle of the ship, it makes for a balanced ship, with little oscillation when we hit the rough patches in the water.

That’s not where we’re at right now. Somewhere along the line someone decided to get as many people as possible to one side of the ship, and it starts listing that way. Then a bunch of other folks scream and over-react, getting as many people running towards the other side of the ship, and that leads to a temporary correction, followed by more of an over-correction.

And people on both side of the ship are yelling at the other side stating that they are the problem.

I think the real problem is with the whisper campaigns telling people in both sides of the boat that they’re right, and other other side is wrong, and that no one on either side should ever talk to the folk on the other side because they have been and always will be wrong.

We can’t continue down this road of oscillation and over-reaction. Some people are afraid of change… mainly a lot of old white folks that like their place in the hierarchy. They don’t want to cede any power… at least not in this lifetime.

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But that’s not realistic. The day of Congress being nothing but a bunch of privileged white dudes is coming to an end. They’ll be replaced by women, they’ll be replaced by people of color, and people from very different backgrounds. And… crazy thought here, some of them will be conservative, some of them progressive, and some of them with really good ideas that may or may not ever get any traction.

We need to return to the center. We need to quit yelling at each other. We need to quite belittling each other and come together. I’m not seeing as much of that as I would like to see with the candidates. I see the polarity… I see people yelling about why we need to run to the other side of the boat.

I’m all for a little rocking, but sometimes we have to accept that too much rocking might capsize the boat.

Let’s return to the center and take a few progressive steps gradually.

I hope the world is treating you better than you deserve.

Peace, y’all.